Data Driven Insights for Better Decisions

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Seeing What Other’s Don’t, Gary Klein

Some topics are seemingly too broad and complex to be distilled down into a practical guide. In Seeing What Others Don’t, The Remarkable Ways We Gain Insights, the author takes on the magic of insights and delivers a working reference model for individuals and organizations.

The author examines an established model for insights, conducts extensive analysis of insights occurring under different conditions, and creates a new framework called The Triple Path Model.

The three insight pathways: contradictions, connections, and creative desperation provide methods to examine behavior and patterns we see every day and those that require deep study to leverage.

“Each pathway has its own means of altering the beliefs that anchor they way we understand things.”

A TEDx talk by Gary Klein summarizing his work and conclusions can be found here.

Developing more insights starts with making a daily habit of a curious mindset and encouraging others to participate. By collecting and analyzing data over time we build a valuable picture for curious reflection and new insights.

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“Insights shift us towards a new story, a new set of beliefs that are more accurate, more comprehensive, and more useful.”

Dave Kinney
EU Smart City Goal: 10 Million Smart Lampposts across EU Cities

The Internet-of-Things (IOT) trend is growing rapidly in many fields including towns and cities throughout the world.

The EU has an initiative underway to re-invent the concept of a lamppost to deliver new services at a lower cost: A Dozen things to do with a Lamppost that has nothing to with light

“In addition, the initiative will exploit this city-wide infrastructure to deliver new value-added services: i.e. multi-purpose the asset to increase savings; deliver better services; and offer additional revenue potential for cities. This provides a compelling financial case to act, and opens the opportunity to multi-purpose the lamppost to provide smart services.”

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Simon & Garfunkel released the “The 59th Street Bridge Song” in 1966 including this remarkable line:

“Hello, lamppost, what’cha knowin’?”

From the World Economic Forum Article:

In London and Bristol, UK company Hello Lamp Post has pioneered a playful approach to smart lampposts. Citizens are invited to conduct conversations with lampposts and other street furniture by SMS text, using the object’s identification number. The lampposts in the trial were programmed to ask questions about their surroundings and to engage people in conversations. In London’s Queen Elizabeth Olympic Park, they asked passersby about their favorite Olympians.

The EU project team says cities should think of their lampposts as “a regularly-spaced network of elevated posts with power throughout the city that can help transform the efficiency and effectiveness of city services, rather than just poles to hang lightbulbs on.”

Dave Kinney
Pearson's Correlation Coefficient

Two periods of near perfect negative correlation(red) of temperature(black) vs. relative humidity(green)

This example is not ideal as the two variables are not independent; however, it demonstrates the function. Relative humidity is a dimensionless ratio and varies with temperature changes: because warm air can hold more water vapor than cold air, relative humidity falls(denominator increases) when the temperature rises.

Temperature T in BLACK, RH in GREEN, Coefficient R in RED calculated real-time at module level using 4 hour data window.

Temperature T in BLACK, RH in GREEN, Coefficient R in RED calculated real-time at module level using 4 hour data window.

Dave Kinney
IMLS Survey Results

Interesting visual presentation showing the very large number of small institutions from the February 2019 Protecting America’s Collections survey by the Institute of Museum and Library Services.

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And current collections risk profile with water or moisture not surprisingly at the top and particulate matter also a significant issue. Please see earlier post on dust management at the Victoria & Albert Museum, information sheet from the Museums Galleries Scotland on particulate matter pollution, and example of household generated particulate matter.

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Dave Kinney
Book Recommendation

I just finished User Friendly, How the hidden rules of design are changing the way we live, work,, and play by Cliff Kuang with Robert Fabricant and highly recommend purchasing a copy.

The Three Mile Island control panel lights had multiple meanings: fourteen different meanings for red, eleven for green, not to mention the 1100 dials organized without reason or logical association with the reactor and cooling systems. Thankfully, with just 30 minutes to go a new staff member arrived and with a fresh set of eyes took the right steps to avoid a complete meltdown of the core.

The terrible fire at Notre Dame rapidly grew out of control after indicators on the state-of-the-art fire alarm system were misinterpreted resulting in the disastrous delay in emergency response.

Design is both essential and critical. This book has a wealth of examples and concepts richly developed to become a terffic source of inspiration and exploration of new ideas and approaches.

Dave Kinney
Indoor Air Quality: CO2 vs TVOC

This chart shows the difference in sensor response to VOC’s produced by human respiration alone and with alcohol present.

CO2 blue, TVOC green.

CO2 blue, TVOC green.

Further illustration of the sensitivity of the sensor to alcohol is seen at events taking place on the 3rd floor where alcohol was served and TVOC response ranged from 5000 to 7000. The sensor is located on the 3rd floor throughout the period shown.

Dave Kinney
Indoor Air Quality: Particulate Matter

Measuring particulate matter > 0.5um: yellow is peak value over measurement period, blue is average.

Three examples showing PM propagation and strong sensor response to sources of particulate matter.

PM sources in 1st floor kitchen & bath, sensor located on second floor.

PM sources in 1st floor kitchen & bath, sensor located on second floor.

PM stands for particulate matter (also called particle pollution): the term for a mixture of solid particles and liquid droplets found in the air. Some particles, such as dust, dirt, soot, or smoke, are large or dark enough to be seen with the naked eye. Others are so small they can only be detected using an electron microscope. Source epa.gov.

The use of a range ventilation hood that is vented to the outside is highly recommended whenever cooking on a kitchen stove top. More information in this article from Stanford Medicine with good advice to “Beyond that, almost any range hood works better if you cook on the back burners. If you put it on a low speed and cook on a single back burner, then you’ll typically capture 50 to 70 percent of the pollutants.”.

Dave Kinney
Steady Followed by Sharp Decline

See November 18, 2018 blog post for similar converging trend but less dramatic end of Fall decline.

Interior relative humidity, sensor located in room with front door.

Interior relative humidity, sensor located in room with front door.

Dave Kinney
Rate of Change

Real-time calculation of rate-of-change of a metric can offer additional insights and attributes to characterize performance and behavior, and may suggest new thresholds to monitor or alert on.

TempF in gold, Slope in red.

TempF in gold, Slope in red.

Dave Kinney
Characterize Building Envelope Response to Outside Climate

Multiple rainy, foggy, damp days followed by clearing overnight and rapid temperature drop starting Friday morning. The interior RH on the 3rd floor of this historic property built in 1728 tracked the outside RH closely until 4PM Friday afternoon with a dramatic change of 30% over 10 hours suggesting the possibility of air infiltration and exfiltration.

Most historic structures do not have insulation and vapor barriers commonly found in modern construction. Differentials in air pressure contribute to the rate of air transfer through diffusion or channel flow. Wind pressure on buildings is an important factor in energy loss and moisture transfer. The stack effect is a result of a difference in pressure at the top and bottom of a building. During the winter, cold heavy outside air creates pressure driving infiltration at the bottom and resulting exfiltration at the top. The reverse may occur in the summer with air-conditioning.

Interior relative humidity green, Outside temperature purple.

Interior relative humidity green, Outside temperature purple.

Outside relative humidity on Friday. Source: NWS.

Outside relative humidity on Friday. Source: NWS.

A drop in outside temperature Friday morning through Saturday morning for a total change of almost 40 degrees in just over 24 hours. Throughout this four day period, the heating system kept the interior temperature within a narrow range above 65 degrees. The outside humidity Saturday morning continued higher at 70%.

Relative humidity is the ratio (expressed as a percentage) of the amount of moisture in the air to the maximum amount that the air can hold at that temperature. Because warm air can hold more water vapor than cool air, relative humidity falls when the temperature rises(denominator increases), assuming no moisture is added to the air.

N.B. Humid air is lighter than dry air because the molecular weight of nitrogen (28) and oxygen(32) is higher than the molecular weight of water vapor molecules(18) which displace an equal amount of nitrogen and oxygen molecules.

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UPDATE

At 8AM on the 13th, the interior RH (green) declined to a very dry19% vs 42% outside RH. Individual room forced-air heating units (gold) may have contributed to further drying of the interior air at a rate greater than any infiltration, possibly combined with stack effect pressure differential. Exterior temperature (purple).

Dave Kinney
Comparing Sensors and Filters

Two CO2 sensors from different suppliers located in the same room with sensor S2 very close to human activity. S1 in turquoise uses a 15 minute moving average filter to smooth results, S2 in pink has a very short acting 15 second filter demonstrating much faster response, and larger response due to concentrations of CO2 close to the sensor. In the absence of human activity both sensors track the ambient CO2 level closely.

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Dave Kinney
Cape Ann Museum
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The Cape Ann Museum is a very polished museum located in Gloucester, MA. The museum houses the largest collection of work by native son and renowned marine artist, Fitz Henry Lane, as well as work by other prominent painters and sculptors who lived on, visited or were inspired by Cape Ann.

The museum has seven main galleries and five ancillary ones, each exploring an aspect of the region's history and culture through exhibitions including a first order Fresnel lens from Thachers Island.

From the museum website: "It was built in Paris, France, in 1860, installed on Thacher Island the following year and served as a beacon for mariners for over 120 years. It was originally lit by whale oil, then by lard oil and eventually by kerosene (mineral oil). It was electrified in 1932 and ultimately removed by the Coast Guard in 1980. The shining lens stands 10 feet tall and 6 feet in diameter and is comprised of 290 glass prisms set in a bronze frame. It weighs just over a ton.

First order Fresnel lenses are extremely rare. There are only 39 in the country, three of which are in New England. The only other one in Massachusetts is at the Martha’s Vineyard Museum in Edgartown."

An exceptional North Shore institution, definitely worth a visit, even better when followed by a glass of wine at the Beauport Hotel.

Dave Kinney
Preservation Initiative

This is a terrific story of a group of individuals taking the initiative to preserve maritime history. Through their efforts, the Nantucket Shoals Lightship Station was rescued from decay and the scrap heap and relocated back to its original home port of Boston.

Nantucket Lightship/LV-112 built in 1936, was the largest ever constructed serving until 1983. It was last to be decommissioned and longest serving for 39 years. A total of 179 were built, now only 15 remain. Somehow they managed to replace the original steam engine with an 8 cylinder diesel engine in 1960.

The Council of American Maritime Museums is a fine resource for maritime preservation.

Dave Kinney